The Rogers curve as a steering matrix for innovative projects

De-risking Innovative projects Series • Practical technical article #3
level: beginner — intermediate — advanced

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Note: Before starting, you should know that most of the advice I give is taken from techniques commonly used in innovation, design or management. I will quote them if necessary.

What is the Rogers Curve?

This curve is known under different names.
Its initial name is: Technology diffusion curve
But it is also known as : Life cycle curve of technologies or new (or innovative) products

It is mainly due to Everett M. Rogers who developed it and exposed it in 1962 in a book called: Diffusion of Innovations (according to wikipedia) — 5th edition in 2003.

What is the idea behind the Rogers curve?

1- It is the evolution over time of the adoption of an idea, an innovation, a product, a process, within society

2- It is also the sequence that goes through the different motivations for adoption, which determines different categories of audiences also called “adoption groups”:

• the innovators
• the early adopters
• the early majority (pragmatists)
• the late majority (conservatives)
• the laggards

3- These are also the transitory phases of passage from one adoption group to the next, transitory phases that constitute gaps or chasms to be crossed — the crossing can be helped by the previous adoption groups (but not necessarily)

4- Finally, there are the 5 factors that drive the evolution of adoption (factors that are not shown on the curve), namely:

• The innovation itself (an idea, a practice, an object; the nature of the thing…)
• The audience, which we call here “the adopters” (the nature of these adopters, their motivations, their profiles, individuals or groups…)
• The communication channels used within the groups of adopters and the channels that interconnect the different types of adopters
• Time, seen in terms of the duration of the innovation’s presence in society, to make it a less new phenomenon, but also time in terms of the adoption process(es) linked to the natural conduct of change, to its resistance…
• The social system, as external influences (media, state and public authorities, federations…) and internal influences (opinion leaders)

The evolution in time can be long. It is unlikely to be very short, (although it has been seen on rare occasions, of course!).

What is not the Rogers Curve?

• It is not the evolution of the types of customers for a new product in isolation from the rest of the innovation ecosystem
• It could be the evolution of the adoption of an innovation from the microcosm of a company or an organization if the innovation was isolated from the rest of the world or if it only addressed a completely isolated minority on the subject, (but it is not sure that this is fully possible).
• It could not be the different types of customers of a company, unless the evolution from adoption of one type of product or idea to a transition phase was long; and in the best case, it would only concern a small number of these types.

The Rogers curve as a steering matrix

The Rogers Curve as a matrix can help with activities that an innovative product or product development project manager needs to perform during the life of the project to help steer in a better known world.

The big advantage (and relevance) of the curve is that it is an evolutionary curve. Its use leads to consider things in time and not in a static way.

This practical technical article contains directions for use to help the project manager and/or the consultants who help him.

A- The audit

1. Audit the project/product and try to place its position on the curve using both what say the project team, the product manager, the product owner (PO) if there is one, the marketers… and the promotion and/or the public relations of the project/product when they exist.
2. Audit the users, customers, private testers, public testers of the project/product object and place it on the curve according to the ideas they have of this object, what they say about it and the reasons they have (or not) to adopt it.
3. Audit the competitors (direct and substitute) and place their project/product on the curve by finding out what they say about their project/product, what their advertising/promotion, their public relations, their customers say…
4. Audit the public domain of the project/product’s object through media, public studies, publications of scientific articles… and position the domain on the curve according to what has been found.

It is recommended to have a scientific approach (data driven), not to be satisfied with approximations but to seek and obtain quantifications as much as possible. For example, from interviews with users and/or customers, carried out with a formal and systematic questionnaire, allowing to categorize the answers and to make a well-founded classification.

Best practice tip: the permanent or recurrent audit helps to keep the project connected to the ecosystem, the domain, the reality…

B- The analysis

Classically, the analysis consists of defining what is correct (IN) and what is incorrect (OUT) and how, how much, why these “correct/incorrect” are and on what elements of the audit found during the audit one bases oneself.

1. Define what is correct/incorrect in WHAT WE KNOW about the state of adoption on which we rely to drive the project/product.
2. Define what is correct/incorrect in the development status of the project/product or what has been developed
3. Define what is correct/incorrect in everything that surrounds/accompanies/packages the project/product such as its promotion, its associated services, its sale, its distribution…
4. Define what is correct/incorrect in the competitors’ projects/products

It is recommended to have a dynamic approach, trying to assess how these correct/incorrect elements evolve over time and could evolve in the future.

Before mapping out strategies — which will inevitably start to emerge at this stage of the operation, formulate all the things to do such as:

• improving knowledge, data (amplifying the audit)
• improvement of project management or product development
• improvement of what accompanies / surrounds / packages the product

…

C.1- The strategy

The key point here is to define where to focus the project and/or product development action in the adoption cycle.

1. Define what the current state of adoption of the project/product topic is in the society and find the evidence based on the audit and analysis.
2. Define if this is a transitional phase (passage between 2 adoption groups) and find the evidence of this.
3. Define what position is credible and/or possible to adopt for the project/product, in accordance with investment capacities, resources, timing requirements…
4. Define what strategy would/should/could be adopted by competitors in view of what is known about them.
5. Draw the road map through the adoption evolution curve or through a part of it

Don’t bet too much on a rapid shift in adoption. Instead, play with the current state of adoption.

C.2- Le referential

Establish a “Rogers curve” adapted to the project/product, resulting from A) the audit, B) the analysis and C) the strategy, a “customized” curve that will serve as a guiding reference for the project/product (and that should be updated regularly).

D- Debugging

Debugging classically consists of finding out what is not compliant or does not work in relation to a standard or a reference frame and proposing corrections.

Part 1

1. If you have not just made points A to C, find out what the reference frame (C.2) is. If it does not exist, do points A to C.
2. Evaluate the project/product in relation to this frame of reference

Part 2

1. Do a quick audit according to point A
2. Redo a quick analysis according to point B
3. Think about the obvious strategy based on what was quickly found in 2.1 and 2.2
4. Establish the definition of a new rapid benchmark.
5. Evaluate the gap between the current state of the project/product and this quickly designed baseline in 2.4

Part 3

1. Make the necessary corrections to points A, B and C
2. Make corrections to the project/product management, development…
3. Make corrections to what accompanies the project/product…

Conclusion

The Rogers curve is a very powerful tool to use as a steering matrix for project managers, product developers, startups, innovation labs, design offices…

And it should be well understood and used by consultants, product owners, product designers….

Luc-Olivier Lafeuille

De-risk innovation ! Would you like to have a first de-risking plan for your project? Let’s set up a 30 min meeting to define it as free: http://url.asitech.design/30-min-free-session-medium

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Other technical notes techniques on the Medium publication “Design Tips” or in French “Conseils de Conception”